Original Research
Is the South African business cycle time dependent?
South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences | Vol 4, No 1 | a2636 |
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4102/sajems.v4i1.2636
| © 2018 Ashley G. Frank
| This work is licensed under CC Attribution 4.0
Submitted: 06 July 2018 | Published: 31 March 2001
Submitted: 06 July 2018 | Published: 31 March 2001
About the author(s)
Ashley G. Frank, Regent College, University of Luton, United KingdomFull Text:
PDF (535KB)Abstract
This study is concerned with the South African business cycle and makes use of the hazard function to determine the importance of duration for its analysis. This function gives the conditional probability that a state sustained through a previous period will end in the current one. The study estimates this probability for both economic downturn and expansion. At the 95 per cent confidence level, there is no statistical underpinning found for conventional ideas about the likelihood of an upturn or downturn in the economy over time. The duration of a business cycle does not help predict the turning point
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Crossref Citations
1. Reconsidering the business cycle and stabilisation policies in South Africa
S.A. du Plessis
Economic Modelling vol: 23 issue: 5 first page: 761 year: 2006
doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2005.10.006