Original Research

Predicting turning points in the South African economy

Elna Moolman
South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences | Vol 6, No 2 | a3315 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.4102/sajems.v6i2.3315 | © 2019 Elna Moolman | This work is licensed under CC Attribution 4.0
Submitted: 31 July 2019 | Published: 30 June 2003

About the author(s)

Elna Moolman, Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, South Africa

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Abstract

Despite the existence of macroeconomic models and complex business cycle indicators, it would be beneficial to policymakers and market participants if they could look at one well-chosen indicator in predicting business cycle turning points. If one indicator accurately predicts business cycle turning points, it provides an easy way to confirm the predictions of macroeconomic models, or it can eliminate the need for a macroeconomic model if the interest is in the turning points and not in the levels of the business cycle. The objective of this paper is to investigate whether turning points of the South African business cycle can be predicted with only one economic indicator.

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