Original Research
Predicting turning points in the South African economy
South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences | Vol 6, No 2 | a3315 |
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4102/sajems.v6i2.3315
| © 2019 Elna Moolman
| This work is licensed under CC Attribution 4.0
Submitted: 31 July 2019 | Published: 30 June 2003
Submitted: 31 July 2019 | Published: 30 June 2003
About the author(s)
Elna Moolman, Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, South AfricaFull Text:
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Despite the existence of macroeconomic models and complex business cycle indicators, it would be beneficial to policymakers and market participants if they could look at one well-chosen indicator in predicting business cycle turning points. If one indicator accurately predicts business cycle turning points, it provides an easy way to confirm the predictions of macroeconomic models, or it can eliminate the need for a macroeconomic model if the interest is in the turning points and not in the levels of the business cycle. The objective of this paper is to investigate whether turning points of the South African business cycle can be predicted with only one economic indicator.
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Crossref Citations
1. Dating the Business Cycle in South Africa by Using a Markov-Switching Model
F Bismans, P Le Roux
Studies in Economics and Econometrics vol: 37 issue: 3 first page: 25 year: 2013
doi: 10.1080/10800379.2013.12097257