African Continental Free Trade Area and gross domestic product performance: Panel evidence from seven early ratifying African economies

Abstract

Background: The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is expected to influence macroeconomic performance through trade integration and structural adjustment. However, empirical evidence based on observed post-ratification data remains limited, particularly with respect to gross domestic product (GDP) dynamics in early-implementing economies.
Aim: This study examines GDP dynamics in the context of AfCFTA and assesses whether the post-2018 implementation period is associated with changes in macroeconomic performance among early ratifying countries.
Setting: The analysis focuses on seven early ratifying African economies – Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda, Niger, Chad, Eswatini and Côte d’Ivoire – over the period 2012–2024.
Method: A longitudinal panel framework is applied using a fixed-effects regression model with a post-2018 indicator, a time trend and pandemic controls. Cluster-robust standard errors and a Wild Cluster Bootstrap procedure are used to strengthen inference. A complementary counterfactual analysis based on pre-2020 growth trends is also implemented.
Results: Among the seven early ratifying economies, the findings indicate a positive and statistically significant association between the post-2018 period and GDP dynamics. In the logarithmic specification, this corresponds to an approximate 7.17% higher level of nominal GDP relative to the pre-2018 trajectory. Counterfactual analysis reveals heterogeneous adjustments: smaller economies exceed projected growth paths, while larger economies exhibit persistent negative deviations.
Conclusion: The post-ratification period is associated with measurable shifts in GDP trajectories, although recovery from the pandemic remains uneven across countries.
Contribution: This study provides empirical evidence based on observed macroeconomic data during the AfCFTA implementation phase among seven early ratifying economies, combining econometric and counterfactual approaches to capture structural changes in GDP dynamics.